Zugzwang

Elections news - September 28, 2018

** 2018 Senate:

-- FL: Florida Chamber of Commerce poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 48-46 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- MT: Benenson poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 50-43 on GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 3.1%].

-- TX: Why the 538 model thinks Beto's got a shot.

** 2018 House:

-- The CLF, one of the main GOP House SuperPACs, announced it is cutting all spending in CO-06 and MI-08, as they start the process of triaging doomed districts. Election Twitter reaction was basically, "Whoa, that tier of districts is *required* if the GOP is going to hold onto the House."

-- MI-08: Public Opinion Strategies poll has GOP incumbent Bishop up 45-43 on Dem Slotkin [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Bishop campaign. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup] => Bishop pushed this out today, presumably in reaction the CLF move above. There hasn't been any recent public polling - a Slotkin internal had her up a few points - but Siena is in the field right now. The DCCC recently pulled their spending, too, so the higher ups seem to be in agreement for now.

-- AZ-08: Lake Research poll has GOP incumbent Lesko up 48-44 on Dem Tipirneni [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Tipirneni campaign. [Trump 58-37 | Cook: Solid R]

-- CA-22: Survey USA poll has GOP incumbent Nunes up 55-41 on Dem Janz [MOE: +/- 5.7%]. [Trump 52-43 | Cook: Solid R]

-- MT-AL: Same Benenson poll has GOP incumbent Gianforte up 46-45 on Dem Williams. [Trump 57-36 | Cook: Lean R]

-- NH-01: American Research Group poll has Dem Pappas up 55-33 on EdwardsGOP incumbent Sununu up 49-44 on Dem Kelly [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D]

-- NH-02: American Research Group poll has Dem Kuster up 54-27 on GOPer Negron [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Clinton 49-46 | Cook: Solid D]

** Odds & ends:

-- FL gov: Same FL Chamber poll has Dem Gillum up 48-42 on GOPer DeSantis. [Cook: Tossup] | Downballot: Ag Comm: Dem Fried up 42-37 on GOPer Calwell. AG: Dem Shaw up 35-33 on GOPer Moody. CFO: Dem Ring tied 38-38 with GOP incumbent Patronis.

-- AK gov: Alaska Survey Research poll has GOPer Dunleavy at 44%, Dem Begich at 29%, and independent incumbent Walker at 23% [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. [Cook: Lean R] => This is a bigger lead for Dunleavy than other polling has shown, but it sure looks like either Begich or Walker need to drop out and endorse the other.

-- MD gov: Mason-Dixon poll has GOP incumbent Hogan up 52-37 on Dem Jealous [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. [Cook: Likely R]

-- OK gov: Right Strategy Group poll has GOPer Stitt up 47-43 on Dem Edmondson [MOE: +/- 3.0%]. RSG is not a 538-rated pollster, but this is pretty consistent with other polling. [Cook: Likely R]

-- NH gov: Same American Research Group poll has GOP incumbent Sununu up 49-44 on Dem Kelly [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Cook: Likely R]

-- MI initiatives: EPIC/MRA poll has Initiative 1 (recreational pot) up 56-41; Initiative 2 (anti-gerrymandering) up 48-32, and Initiative 3 (various voting reforms) up 70-24 [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

Elections news - September 27, 2018

(I'm going to start adding some commentary, where appropriate)

** 2018 Senate:

-- WV: 1892 Polling has Dem incumbent Manchin tied 45-45 with GOPer Morrisey [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. Poll was commissioned by the Morrisey campaign. => This seems pretty clearly an effort to counter perceptions that this race is already over - the DSCC pulled ads yesterday. Public polling has had Manchin with leads of about ten points.

-- CA: PPIC poll has incumbent Feinstein up 40-29 on de León [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- MI: EPIC-MRA poll has Dem incumbent Stabenow up 56-33 on GOPer James. [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

-- PA: F&M poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 50-33 on GOPer Barletta [MOE: +/- 6.1%].

-- IN: Former Senator Lugar refuses to endorse either candidate.

** 2018 House:

-- CA-50: Monmouth poll has GOP incumbent Hunter up 49-41 on Dem Campa-Najjar in their potential voters model. In midterm model, Hunter up 3-38; Dem surge model, Hunter up 51-40 [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 55-40 | Cook: Lean R] => Hunter is currently under indictment for campaign finance violations, which is why the Dem is about 20 points closer than he was previously. But it's just a really red area. The DCCC is cancelling their San Diego ad buys, probably meaning they a) see CA-50 as out of reach, and b) see CA-49 as in the bag.

-- AZ-04: OH Predictive poll has GOP incumbent Gosar up 57-25 on Dem Brill [MOE: +/- 5.1%] [Trump 68-28 | Cook: Solid D] => This is the one where all of Gosar's siblings made an ad endorsing Brill. It was a great ad, but a 40 point Trump margin district.

-- Democrats still expanding the map, as numerous unheralded races are believed to be within 10 points.

-- Cohn: Undecided voters may help Dems more in Sunbelt than Midwest.

** Odds & ends:

-- CA gov: Same PPIC poll has Dem Newsom up 51-39 on GOPer Cox. | Downballot, Proprosition 6 (gas tax repeal) fails 39-52; Proposition 10 (allowing municipalities greater power to enact rent control) fails 36-48. [Cook: Solid D]

-- MI gov: Same EPIC-MRA poll has Dem Whitmer up 45-37 on GOPer Schuette [Cook: Lean D] | Downballot: SOS: Dem Benson up 40-31 on GOPer Treder Lang. AG: Dem Nessel up 38-32 on GOPer Leonard.

-- PA gov: Same F&M poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 52-30 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D]

-- SD gov: ALG poll has Dem Sutton up 45-42 on GOPer Noem [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. Poll was commissioned by the Sutton campaign. [Cook: Likely R] => This one has been a sleeper favorite for a while. Sutton is very well known and popular in SD - he's a former professional rodeo guy who suffered a tragic accident - and presumably the soybean tariff is none too popular. Still something of a long shot, but not a foregone conclusion.

-- FL gov: GOPer DeSantis hires new campaign manager, as polls show Dem Gillum with consistent leads. [Cook: Tossup]

Elections news pt. 2 - September 26, 2018

** 2018 Senate:

-- WV: DSCC starting to cancel ad time here. Presumably they think this one is done.

** 2018 House:

-- NJ-03: Siena poll has Dem Kim up 49-39 on GOP incumbent MacArthur [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 51-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- NE-02: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Bacon up 51-42 on Dem Eastman [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Trump 48-46 | Cook: Lean R]

-- WA-08: Siena poll has Dem Schrier up 46-45 on GOPer Rossi [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Clinton 48-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- MI-08: GQRR poll has Dem Slotkin up 47-43 on GOP incumbent Bishop [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Slotkin campaign. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- VA-07: Normington Petts poll has Dem Spanberger tied 47-47 with GOP incumbent Brat [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Spanberger campaign. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

Elections news - September 26, 2018

** 2018 Senate:

-- OH: Marist poll has Dem incumbent Brown up 52-39 on GOPer Renacci [MOE: +/- 5.0%] || Ipsos poll has Brown up 50-39 [MOE: +/- 3.4%].

-- IN: Ipsos poll has Dem incumbent Donnelly up 46-43 on GOPer Braun [MOE: +/- 3.3%].

-- MI: Ipsos poll has Dem incumbent Stabenow up 55-35 on GOPer James [MOE: +/- 3.3%].

-- PA: Ipsos poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 53-37 on GOPer Barletta [MOE: +/- 3.4%].

-- WI: Ipsos poll has Dem incumbent Baldwin up 52-39 on GOPer Vukmir [MOE: +/- 3.4%].

-- DE: UofD poll has Dem incumbent Carper up 61-24 on GOPer Arlett [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

** 2018 House:

-- MN-02: Survey USA poll has Dem Craig up 48-45 on GOP incumbent Lewis [MOE: +/- 4.5%] [Trump 47-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- VA-02: Garin-Hart-Yang poll has Dem Luria up 51-43 on GOP incumbent Taylor [MOE: +/- 5.0%] Poll was commissioned by the Luria campaign. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- DE-AL: Same UofD poll has Dem incumbent Blunt Rochester up 58-28 on GOPer Walker. [Clinton: 53-42 | Cook: Solid D]

** Odds & ends:

-- OH gov: Same Marist poll has Dem Cordray tied 47-47 with GOPer DeWine [Cook: Tossup] || Same Ipsos poll has DeWine up 45-44.

-- FL gov: Quinnipiac poll has Dem Gillum up 54-45 on GOPer DeSantis [MOE: +/- 4.0%] [Cook: Tossup] | GOP worried DeSantis isn't taking the race seriously.

-- MA gov: MassInc Polling has GOP incumbent Baker up 68-24 on Dem Gonzalez [MOE: +/- 4.4%] [Cook: Solid R]

-- MI gov: Same Ipsos poll has Dem Whitmer up 52-39 on GOPer Schuette. [Cook: Lean D]

-- PA gov: Same Ipsos poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 55-38 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D]

-- WI gov: Same Ipsos poll has Dem Evers up 50-43 on GOP incumbent Walker. [Cook: Tossup]

Elections news pt. 2 - September 25, 2018

** 2018 House:

-- CA-45: Siena poll has Dem Porter up 48-45 on GOP incumbent Walters [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- PA-07: Siena poll has Dem Wild up 50-42 on GOPer Nothstein [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 49-48 | Cook: Lean D]

-- CA-21: Survey USA poll has GOP incumbent Valdao up 50-39 on Dem Cox [MOE: +/- 5.4%]. [Clinton 55-40 | Cook: Likely R]

-- Another batch of the PPP polls sponsored by a progressive healthcare group, usual caution about survey design:

-- TX-32: Dem Allred up 47-42 on GOP incumbent Sessions [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup]
-- TX-07: Dem Fletcher up 47-45 on GOP incumbent Culberson [MOE: +/- 4.1%]. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup]

-- Cook: Signs of bad turnout for GOP, which would be disastrous for them.

** 2018 Senate:

-- MA: MassInc Polling has Dem incumbent Warren up 56-30 on GOPer Diehl [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- FL: Marist poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 48-45 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 4.7%].

** Odds & ends:

-- KS gov: Civiqs poll has Dem Kelly at 41, GOPer Kobach at 39, indy Orman at 9 [MOE: +/- 3.4%]. [Cool: Tossup]

-- FL gov: Same Marist poll has Dem Gillum up 48-43 on GOPer DeSantis. [Cook: Tossup]

-- Tom Steyer dumping $5M into GOTV efforts in Florida. This is specifically targeting the Gillum campaign, but a rising tide lifts all boats.

Elections news - September 25, 2018

** 2018 Senate:

-- FL: Quinnipiac poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 53-46 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

-- AZ: Marist poll has Dem Sinema up 48-45 on GOPer McSally [MOE: +/- 4.7%].

-- MT: Gravis poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 49-45 on GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

** 2018 House:

-- VA-07: Monmouth poll has Dem Spanberger up 47-42 on GOP incumbent Brat in their potential voters model. Tied at 47-47 in the midterm model, Spanberger up 48-45 in Dem surge model [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- KY-06: Pulse Opinion poll has Dem McGrath tied 47-47 with GOP incumbent Barr [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Poll was commissioned by a group favoring House term limits. [Trump 55-39 | Cook: Tossup]

-- MT-AL: Same Gravis poll has GOP incumbent Gianforte up 51-42 on Dem Williams. [Trump 57-36 | Cook: Lean R]

-- Everytown for Gun Safety, Mike Bloomberg's gun control group, is dumping $5M in ads targeting 15 House districts.

-- If you're interested in really overthinking House races, you may want to follow Medium Buying, which reports on political ad buys and cancellations. For example, the DCCC is buying time for the first time in PA-16, which went for Trump by 20 points, so a race that hasn't been considered competitive may be becoming so.

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: Same Marist poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 51-43 on Dem Garcia. [Cook: Likely R]

-- Vox: Top state legislative battles.

Elections news - September 24, 2018

** 2018 House:

-- TX-32: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Sessions up 48-47 on Dem Allred [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup]

-- KS-03: Siena poll has Dem Davids up 51-43 on GOP incumbent Yoder [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 47-46 | Cook: Tossup]

-- TX-31: ALG poll has GOP incumbent Carter up 46-42 on Dem Hegar [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. Poll was commissioned by the Hegar campaign. [Trump 54-41 | Cook: Likely R]

-- PA-11: PPP poll has GOP incumbent Smucker up 44-35 on Dem King [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. You may have seen the recent Metafilter FPP about the King campaign. [Trump 61-35 | Cook: Solid R]

-- FL-17: Dem candidate April Freeman died unexpectedly last night. Under state law, her name will stay on the ballot, but the party will have a week to come up with a substitute candidate [Trump 62-35 | Cook: Solid R]

-- IA-01: DCCC cancels all remaining ad spend here, as everyone seems to think GOP incumbent Blum is done for. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- Weekly check-in on 538 generic ballot average shows D+8.5 (49.4/40.9).

** 2018 Senate:

-- AZ: Emerson poll has Dem Sinema up 45-39 on GOPer McSally [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- FL: UNF poll has Dem incumbent Nelson tied 45-45 with GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 4.0].

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: Same Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 42-38 on Dem Garcia.

-- FL gov: Same UNF poll has Dem Gillum up 47-43 on GOPer DeSantis. | Amendment 4 (felon re-enfranchisement) is up 71-21. Needs 60% approval to become law.

Elections news - September 23, 2018

(adding Cook ratings for governor races)

** 2018 House:

-- CA-49: Siena poll has Dem Levin up 51-41 on GOPer Harkey [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 51-43 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NJ-07: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Lance up 45-44 on Dem Malinowski [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Clinton 49-48 | Cook: Tossup]

--OH-01: American Viewpoint poll has GOP incumbent Chabot up 46-39 on Dem Pureval [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by a GOP SuperPAC. [Trump 51-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- IA-02: Gravis poll has Dem incumbent Loebsack up 43-37 on GOPer Peters [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. Poll was commissioned by the Loebsack campaign. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Solid D]

-- YouGov poll of 61 battleground districts (56 GOP-held), has Dems leading 45-41.

** Odds & ends:

-- GA gov: Garin-Hart-Yang poll has Dem Abrams up 48-42 on GOPer Kemp [MOE: +/- 4.1%]. Poll was commissioned by the Abrams campaign. [Cook: Tossup]

-- IA gov: Selzer poll has Dem Hubbell up 43-41 on GOP incumbent Reynolds [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. [Cook: Tossup]

Elections news - September 21, 2018

** 2018 House:

-- Some more PPP polling at the behest of a progressive healthcare group. As noted yesterday the survey design is a little questionable:

-- FL-18: GOP incumbent Mast up 46-43 on Dem Baer. [Trump 53-44 | Cook: Likely R]
-- FL-25: GOP incumbent Diaz-Balart up 41-36 on Dem Barzee Flores. [Trump 50-48 | Cook: Likely R]
-- FL-26: Dem Mucarsel-Powell up 46-45 on GOP incumbent Curbelo. [Clinton 57-40 | Cook: Lean R]

-- WV-03: DCCC poll has Dem Ojeda up 48-44 on GOPer Miller [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. This is DCCC in-house polling. [Trump 73-23 | Cook: Lean R]

-- CA-16: Survey USA poll has Dem incumbent Costa up 51-40 on GOPer Heng [MOE: +/- 5.2%]. Costa actually won very narrowly in 2016 and 2014, so this is a bit of a relief. [Clinton: 58-36 | Cook: Likely D]

-- CA-45: GSG poll has Dem Porter up 46-43 on GOP incumbent Walters [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. Poll was commissioned by the Porter campaign. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- FL-19: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Rooney up 47-46 on Dem Holden [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Poll was commissioned by the Holden campaign. [Trump 60-38 | Cook: Solid R]

-- PA-17: GOP incumbent Rothfus has been on everyone's triage list for a while, and it looks like the NRCC agrees, cancelling all of their remaining ad buy. [Trump 49-47 | Cook: Lean D]

-- Two Elliott Morris pieces: Centrists did well in primaries, but party is still drifting left. Women candidates did outstandingly well, in all kinds of districts.

** 2018 Senate:

-- PA: Muhlenberg poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 53-35 on GOPer Barletta [MOE: +/- 5.5%].

-- Triton poll has Dem incumbent Brown up 53-42 on GOPer Renacci [MOE: +/- 3.1%]. Triton is not rated by 538, however this result is consistent with other polling.

-- TX: Dem O'Rourke raising staggering amounts of money. | Beto may have significant downballot effects for Dems, win or lose.

** Odds & ends:

-- PA gov: Same Muhlenberg poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 55-36 on GOPer Wagner.

-- OH gov: Same Triton poll has GOPer DeWine up 49-44 on Dem Cordray. | Downballot: AG: GOPer Yost up 44-42 on Dem Dettelbach. SOS: Dem Clyde up 43-40 on GOPer La Rose. Auditor: Dem Space up 39-38 on GOPer Faber. Treasurer Genera: Dem Richardson up 42-39 on GOPer Sprague.

-- Reuters/Ipsos poll has Dem enthusiasm high. 2018 vs 2014 "certain to vote": Dems +9; GOP -3.

-- Early voting has begun in several states.

-- Dems need to pick up ten seats to take control of the Iowa House; there are eight competitive GOP-held seats in IA-01 alone, where GOP incumbent Rod Blum seems to tanking badly.

-- MO non-partisan legislative redistricting initiative is back on the ballot, after a court reversed an earlier ruling.

-- Court rules MO violated motor-voter law, directs them to contact 40k voters to update their registrations.

Elections news pt. 2 - September 20, 2018

** 2018 House:

-- IA-01: Siena poll has Dem Finkenauer up 52-37 on GOP incumbent Blum [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- Two MN polls from PPP. Note that these don't have MOE listed (which PPP does a lot, and it drives me nuts), were commissioned by a progressive group, and asked some policy questions before the horse race questions. You aren't supposed to do that, as it can skew the responses. That said:

-- MN-02: Dem Craig up 48-45 on GOP incumbent Lewis. [Trump 47-45 | Lean D]
-- MN-03: Dem Phillips up 52-39 on GOP incumbent Paulsen. [Clinton 51-41 | Lean D]

-- NC-13: DCCC poll has Dem Manning up 46-42 on GOP incumbent Budd [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. This is DCCC in-house polling. [Trump 53-44 | Lean R]

-- NY-01: GSG poll has GOP incumbent Zeldin up 47-44 on Dem Gershon [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by a Dem SuperPAC. [Trump: 55-42 | Cook: Likely R]

-- NY-22: GOP incumbent Tenney going all in on accusations of Dem Brindisi having mob ties. [Trump 55-39 | Cook: Tossup]

** 2018 Senate:

-- Several polls from Vox Populi. These forced people to pick a candidate, not be undecided; this isn't shady, necessarily, but it's not considered best practice.

-- TX: Dem O'Rourke tied 50-50 with GOP incumbent Cruz [MOE: +/- 4.4%].
-- TN: Dem Bredesen up 51-49 on GOPer Blackburn.[MOE: +/- 4.1%].
-- CA: Incumbent Feinstein up 55-45 on de León [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- TX: PPP also polled this race, finding GOP incumbent Cruz up 48-45 on Dem O'Rourke [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Same caveats as their House polling.

-- RI: Roger Williams poll has Dem incumbent Whitehouse up 54-35 on GOPer Flanders [MOE: +/- 4.8%].

-- MT: NRSC poll has Dem incumbent Tester tied 44-44 with GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. This is NRSC in-house polling.

-- NV: Why Dean Heller isn't dead yet.

** Odds & ends:

-- RI gov: Same Roger Williams poll has Dem incumbent Raimondo up 43-36 on GOPer Fung.

-- CT gov: Sacred Heart poll has Dem Lamont up 43-37 on GOPer Stefanowski [MOE: +/- 4.3%].

-- Vox Populi governor polls:

-- TX: GOP incumbent Abbott up 55-45 on Dem Valdez.
-- TN: GOPer Lee up 55-46 on Dem Dean.
-- CA: Dem Newsom up 60-40 on GOPer Cox.