** 2018 Senate:
-- AZ:** 2018 House:-- Ipsos poll has GOPer McSally up 48-46 on Dem Sinema [MOE: +/- 4.0%].-- CA:
-- SSRS poll has Sinema up 51-47 [MOE: +/- 4.4%].
-- Fox News poll has it tied 46-46 [MOE: +/- 3.5%].-- UC Berkeley poll has incumbent Feinstein up 45-36 on de León[MOE: +/- 4.0%].-- FL: Ipsos poll has Dem Nelson up 49-44 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 3.4%].
-- Probolsky Research poll has Feinstein up 41-35 [MOE: +/- 3.3%].
-- ND:-- Trafalgar Group poll has GOPer Cramer up 49-39 on Dem incumbent Heitkamp [MOE: +/- 2.1%].-- NJ: Vox Populi poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 54-46 on GOPer Hugin [MOE: +/- 3.4%].
-- Fox News poll has Cramer up 51-42 [MOE: +/- 3.0%].
-- NV: SSRS poll has Dem Rosen up 48-45 on GOP incumbent Heller [MOE: +/- 4.8%].
-- TN:-- Cygnal poll has GOPer Blackburn up 51-45 on Dem Bredesen [MOE: +/- 4.4%].-- IN:
-- Fox News poll has Blackburn up 50-41 [MOE: +/- 3.5%].-- Fox News poll has Dem incumbent Donnelly up 45-38 on GOPer Braun [MOE: +/- 3.5%].-- MO: Fox News poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill tied 43-43 with GOPer Hawley [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. | KC Star reporting that out of state political consultants virtually ran Hawley's AG office.
-- Marist poll has Donnelly up 45-42 [MOE: +/- 5.5%].
-- TX: UT-Tyler poll has GOP incumbent Cruz up 47-42 on Dem O'Rourke [MOE: +/- 3.0%].
-- WI: Marquette poll has Dem incumbent Baldwin up 54-43 on GOPer Vukmir [MOE: +/- 3.2%].
-- MT: Gravis poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 48-45 on GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 3.5%].
-- MT: Libertarian Breckenridge drops out, endorsing GOPer Rosendale. Breckenridge was polling low single digits, and Montana is heavy early voting, so probably a minimal impact.
-- ND-AL: Same Fox News poll has GOPer Armstrong up 55-33 on Dem Schneider. [Trump 64-28 | Solid R]** Odds & ends:
-- PA-16: Susquehanna poll has Dem DiNicola up 51-47 on GOP incumbent Kelly [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 58-38 | Cook: Lean R] => I would love if this recent Susquehanna polling were accurate, but they seem a bit too good to be true.
-- NJ-07: [Clinton 49-48 | Cook: Tossup]-- Monmouth poll has Dem Malinowski up 47-44 on GOP incumbent Lance in their standard turnout model. Low turnout, tied at 46; high turnout, Malinowski up 48-43 [MOE: +/- 5.2%].-- ME-02: Emerson poll has Dem Golden up 47-46 on GOP incumbent Poliquin [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 51-41 | Cook: Tossup] => RCV would apply to this race.
-- Siena poll has Malinowski up 47-39 [MOE: +/- 4.6%].
-- NH-01: Emerson poll has Dem Pappas up 48-46 on GOPer Edwards [MOE: +/- 4.3%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D]
-- MT-AL: Same Gravis poll has Dem Williams tied 48-48 with GOP incumbent Gianforte. [Trump 57-36 | Cook: Lean R]
-- NY-19: Survey USA poll has Dem Delgado tied 44-44 with GOP incumbent Faso [MOE: +/- 4.2%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]
-- VA-05: Surprise endorsement of Dem Cockburn by former GOP Senator John Warner. [Trump 53-42 | Cook: Lean R]
-- IA-04: NRCC says it will not assist incumbent King's campaign, which is known to be short of cash. Siena poll is in the field right now, offering a chance to confirm if this one is really breaking late. [Trump 61-34 | Cook: Lean R]
-- VA-07: WP reports that Project Veritas, the James O'Keefe ratfucking operation, apparently infiltrated the campaign of Dem Spanberger. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]
-- Crystal Ball: What districts might be bellwethers.
-- Rakich: Where candidates are out-performing their party.
-- AK gov: Alaska Survey Research poll has GOPer Dunleavy up 43-42 on Dem Begich. When respondents who selected indy Walker, who dropped out of the race (not everyone watches the news), the result was Begich up 46-43 [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. [Cook: Lean R]** Averages & forecasts:
-- AZ gov: [Cook: Likely R]-- Same Ipsos poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 57-37 on Dem Garcia.-- CA gov: Same UC Berkeley poll has Dem Newsom up 58-40 on GOPer Cox. | Downballot: Prop 6 (gas tax repeal): NO 56-40. Prop 10 (permit rent control): NO 60-35.
-- Same SSRS poll has Ducey up 52-45.
-- Same Fox News poll has Ducey up 55-37.
-- FL gov: Same Ipsos poll has Dem Gillum up 50-44 on GOPer DeSantis. [Cook: Tossup]
-- NV gov: Same SSRS poll has Dem Sisolak up 46-45 on GOPer Heller. [Cook: Tossup]
-- TN gov: [Cook: Likely R]-- Same Cygnal poll has GOPer Lee up 59-36 on Dem Dean.-- WI gov: Same Marquette poll has Dem Evers tied 47-47 on GOP incumbent Walker. [Cook: Tossup] | Downballot: AG: GOP incumbent Schimel up 47-45 on Dem Kaul.
-- Same Fox News poll has Lee up 54-37.
-- ME gov: Emerson poll has Dem Mills up 50-42 on GOPer Moody [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Cook: Tossup]
-- NH: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Sununu up 51-43 on Dem Kelly [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Cook: Lean R]
-- CT gov: Emerson poll has Dem Lamont up 46-39 on GOPer Stefanowski [MOE: +/- 3.7%]. [Cook: Tossup] => Joe Lieberman has pledged to serve on a Stefanowski transition team, reminding us all that he is just the biggest piece of shit.
-- OR gov: Hoffman Research poll has Dem incumbent Brown up 45-42 on GOPer Buehler [MOE: +/- 3.7%]. [Cook: Tossup]
-- KS gov: Ipsos poll has Dem Kelly at 43, GOPer Kobach at 41, indy Orman at 9 [MOE: +/- 3.6%]. [Cook: Tossup]
-- OK gov: SoonerPoll has GOPer Stitt up 46-42 on Dem Edmondson [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Cook: Tossup]
-- MI gov: GOPer Schuette cancelling most ad buys, seemingly conceding likely defeat. This matters less for this race - Dem Whitmer has been consistently in the lead - than downballot, where Dems have a chance of taking both houses of the legislature.
-- Survey USA poll of NC downballot [MOE: +/- 6.0%], has Dem Earls leading for the Supreme Court with 44 over GOPer Jackson at 22, and pseudo-GOPer Anglin at 19. Earls is a civil rights lawyer, so this would be great. Ballot amendments:-- Cap state income tax at 7%: YES 47-41-- Good DKE roundup of ballot initiatives impacting voting rights.
-- Right to hunt and fish: YES 64-29
-- Hijack governor's ability to fill judicial vacancies: NO 52-31
-- Hijack governor's role in election boards: NO 47-37
-- Strengthen rights of crime victims: YES 65-27
-- Require voter ID: YES 59-37
-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.5 (50.1/41.6)
-- 538 House forecast (classic): 85.7% chance of Dem control
-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 15.2% chance of Dem control
-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 24.0 states.