Zugzwang

Update

Election day thread #2 is still active, so that's where updates are going. Once that quiets down or closes, I'll go back to Election News updates.

Election Day post #2

Since the elections have gone into overtime, a second Election Day post.

Election Day post

My Metafilter Election Day post is now up.

Elections news - November 5, 2018

// 1 day until Election Day //

(we may yet get more polls dropping but this is where I stop)

** 2018 Senate:

-- I will say upfront I am continuing to raise an eyebrow at these Change Research polls.

-- MI: Mitchell Research poll has Dem incumbent Stabenow up 53-46 on GOPer James [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

-- FL:

-- St Pete Polls has Dem incumbent Nelson up 50-46 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 1.8%].
-- Quinnipiac poll has Nelson up 51-44 [MOE: +/- 3.5%].
-- Emerson poll has Nelson up 50-45 [MOE: +/- 3.7%].
-- Marist poll has Nelson up 50-46 [MOE: +/- 5.0%].

-- NJ:

-- Change Research poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 51-41 on GOPer Hugin [no MOE on these Change Research polls].
-- Qunnipiac poll has Menendez up 55-40 [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

-- MT: Change Research poll has GOPer Rosendale up 49-46 on Dem incumbent Tester.

-- WY: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Barrasso up 60-31 on Dem Trauner. => Must have been exciting for Wyoming folks to actually get polled!

-- PA: Change Research poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 51-44 on GOPer Barletta.

-- OH: Change Research poll has Dem incumbent Brown up 53-43 on GOPer Renacci.

-- NV: Emerson poll has Dem Rosen up 49-45 on GOP incumbent Heller [MOE: +/- 3.0%].

-- MO:

-- Trafalgar Group poll has GOPer Hawley up 48-44 [MOE: +/- 2.3%].
-- Emerson poll has Hawley up 49-46 [MOE: +/- 3.8%].
-- Marist poll has McCaskill up 50-47 [MOE: +/- 5.2%].

-- AZ:

-- OH Predictive Insights poll has GOPer McSally up 49-48 on Dem Sinema [MOE: +/- 3.9%].
-- Emerson poll has Sinema up 49-48 [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

-- MN (A): Survey USA poll has Dem incumbent Klobuchar up 57-34 on GOPer Newberger. [MOE: +/- 5.3%].

-- MN (B): Survey USA poll has Dem incumbent Smith up 48-40 on GOPer Housley.

** 2018 House:

-- MT-AL: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Gianforte up 52-44 on Dem Williams.
[Trump 57-36 | Cook: Lean R]

-- WY-AL: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Cheney up 55-28 on Dem Hunter. [Trump 70-23 | Cook: Solid R]

-- SD-AL: [Trump 62-32 | Cook: Solid R]

-- Change Research poll has GOPer Johnson up 51-41 on Dem Bjorkman.
-- Emerson poll has Johnson up 54-38 [MOE: +/- 4.5%]

-- OH-04: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Jordan up 60-36 on Dem Garrett. [Trump 64-31 | Cook: Solid D]

-- NV-01: Emerson poll has Dem incumbent Titus up 58-28 on GOPer Bentley [MOE: +/- 6.6%]. [Clinton 62-33 | Cook: Solid D]

-- NV-02: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Amodei up 58-37 on Dem Koble [MOE: +/- 5.3%]. [Trump 52-40 | Cook: Solid R]

-- NV-03: Emerson poll has Dem Lee up 51-41 on GOPer Tarkanian [MOE: +/- 5.6%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NV-04: Emerson poll has Dem Horsford up 48-44 on GOPer Hardy [MOE: +/- 6.3%]. [Clinton 50-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NH-01: UNH poll has Dem Pappas up 53-40 on GOPer Edwards [MOE: +/- 5.6%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D]

-- NH-02: UNH poll has Dem incumbent Kuster up 56-35 on GOPer Negron [MOE: +/- 5.5%]. [Clinton 49-46 | Cook: Solid D]

** Odds & ends:

-- MI gov: Mitchell Research poll has Dem Whitmer up 54-40 on GOPer Schuette. [Cook: Lean D]

-- FL gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- St Pete Polls has Dem Gillum up 50-45 on GOPer DeSantis. | Downballot: CFO: Dem Ring tied 47-47 with GOPer Patronis.
-- Quinnipiac poll has Gillum up 50-43.
-- Marist poll has Gillum up 50-46.
-- Emerson poll has Gillum up 51-46.

-- GA gov: 20/20 Insight poll has Dem Abrams up 50-46 [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NH gov: UNH poll has Dem Kelly tied 46-46 with GOP incumbent Sununu [MOE: +/- 3.9%]. [Cook: Lean R] => UNH doesn't have a super great polling rep, but there have been indications this race has been tightening, and New Hampshire has a history of last minute polling upsets.

-- WY gov: Change Research poll has GOPer Gordon up 61-27 on Dem Throne. [Cook: Solid D]

-- SD gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Change Research poll has Dem Sutton up 51-45 on GOPer Noem.
-- Emerson poll has Noem up 48-47 [MOE: +/- 4.5%].

-- PA: Change Research poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 53-42 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D]

-- OH gov: Change Research poll has Dem Cordray up 48-43 on GOPer DeWine. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NV gov: Emerson poll has Dem Sisolak up 48-47 on GOPer Laxalt [MOE: +/- 3.0%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- AZ gov: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 55-40 on Dem Garcia. [Cook: Likely R]

-- MO downballot: Emerson poll has: Legalize pot: YES 63-27. Raise minimum wage: YES 60-31.

-- FL downballot: Emerson poll has : Amendment 4 (felon voting rights): YES 59-32. Needs 60% to pass.

** Averages & forecasts:

-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.4 (50.5/42.1)

-- 538 House forecast (classic): 87.4% chance of Dem control

-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 16.4% chance of Dem control

-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 24.0 states.

Elections news - November 4, 2018

// 2 days until Election Day //

** 2018 Senate:

-- AZ:

-- Harris Interactive poll has GOPer McSally up 48-46 on Dem Sinema [no MOE on any of these Harris Interactive polls].
-- Trafalgar Group poll has Sinema up 50-47 [MOE: +/- 2.1%].

-- FL:

-- Harris Interactive poll has GOPer Scott up 47-45 on Dem incumbent Nelson.
-- Gravis poll has Nelson up 50-47 [MOE: +/- 3.6%].

-- IN: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent Donnelly up 43-42 on GOPer Braun.

-- MO: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill tied 46-46 with GOPer Hawley.

-- NV: Harris Interactive poll has GOP incumbent Heller up 46-45 on Dem Rosen.

-- MT: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 49-43 on GOPer Rosendale.

-- Multiple polls from Research Company, which appears to be a Canadian pollster new to the US (which might explain some of the odd choices). All MOEs +/- 4.6%.

-- PA: Dem incumbent Casey up 56-39 on GOPer Barletta.
-- NY: Dem incumbent Gillibrand up 60-32 on GOPer Farley.
-- MN (A): Dem incumbent Klobuchar up 53-33 on GOPer Newberger.
-- MN (B): Dem incumbent Smith up 49-39 on GOPer Housley.
-- MI: Dem incumbent Stabenow up 52-36 on GOPer James.
-- CA: Incumbent Feinstein up 47-28 on de León.

-- NY: Siena poll has Dem incumbent Gillibrand up 58-35 on GOPer Farley [MOE: +/- 3.9%]. => Why is Siena polling this? They're in NY, and they do all the statewides at the end (see more below).

-- NM: Research & Polling has Dem incumbent Heinrich up 51-31 on GOPer Rich [MOE: +/- 3.1%]. => The Gary Johnson threat never really coalesced here, it looks like.

-- CA: Probolsky Research poll has incumbent Feinstein up 41-35 on de León.[MOE: +/- 3.3%].

-- MI: Target Insyght poll has Dem incumbent Stabenow up 53-43 on GOPer James [MOE: +/- 3.0%].

** 2018 House:

-- The NYT/Siena polling project is at last completed! Note that a few of these final polls did not quite make it to ~500 responses. Analysis seems to show a slight trend to the left as we get to the last batch.

-- NY-22: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Tenney up 46-45 on Dem Brindisi [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Trump 55-39 | Cook: Tossup]

-- IA-04: Siena poll has GOP incumbent King up 47-42 on Dem Scholten [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 61-34 | Cook: Lean R]

-- KY-06: Siena poll has Dem McGrath tied 44-44 with GOP incumbent Barr [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 55-39 | Cook: Tossup]

-- WA-08: Siena poll has Dem Schrier up 48-45 on GOPer Rossi [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Clinton 48-45 | Cook: Tossup] => This is an interesting one. District went for Hillary, but Rossi won it twice in his previous statewide runs, and has a ton of money.

-- MI-08: Siena poll has Dem Slotkin up 49-42 on GOP incumbent Bishop [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- TX-32: Siena poll has Dem Allred up 46-42 on GOP incumbent Sessions [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup] => Sessions didn't even have Dem *opponent* in 2016.

-- IL-14: Siena poll has Dem Underwood up 49-43 on GOP incumbent Hultgren [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- CA-48: Siena poll has Dem Rouda up 46-45 on GOP incumbent Rohrabacher [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 48-46 | Cook: Tossup] => If the actual race is this kind of margin, it might be days and days before we know the final outcome.

-- GA-06: Siena poll has Dem McBath up [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Lean R]

-- VA-07: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Brat up 46-44 on Dem Spanberger [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- NY-19: Siena poll has Dem Delgado up 43-42 on GOP incumbent Faso [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- WI-06: JMC/BBC poll has GOP incumbent Grothman up 61-33 on Dem Kohl [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Trump 56-39 | Cook: Likely R] => This one may be an outlier, the numbers for Senate and governor are considerably lower for Dems than make sense, based on statewide numbers.

-- OH-07: Optimus poll has GOP incumbent Gibbs up 55-36 on Dem Harbaugh [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Trump 63-33 | Cook: Solid R]

-- AZ-01: Optimus poll has Dem incumbent O'Halleran up 48-45 on GOPer Rogers [MOE: +/- 3.6%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D] => Rogers was pushing some internals that showed her up mid-single digits, which wasn't super plausible.

-- NM-01: Research & Polling has Dem Haaland up 50-38 on GOPer Arnold-Jones [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Clinton 52-35 | Cook: Solid D]

-- NM-02: Research & Polling has GOPer Herrell up 46-45 on Dem Torres Small [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 50-40 | Cook: Tossup]

-- In an echo of the "Watergate babies" the Dem caucus will be significantly different in 2019 than now.

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: Harris Interactive poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 57-36 on Dem Garcia. [Cook: Likely R]

-- FL gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Harris Interactive poll has Dem Gillum up 49-46 on GOPer DeSantis.
-- Gravis poll has Gillum up 48-47.

-- NV gov: Harris Interactive poll has GOPer Laxalt up 45-44 on Dem Sisolak. [Cook: Tossup]

-- Research Company gubernatorial polls:

-- PA gov: Dem incumbent Wolf up 54-39 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D]
-- NY gov: Dem incumbent Cuomo up 54-37 on GOPer Molinaro. [Cook: Solid D]
-- MN gov: Dem Walz up 48-42 on GOPer Johnson. [Cook: Likely D]
-- MI gov: Dem Whitmer up 47-43 on GOPer Schuette. [Cook: Lean D]
-- CA gov: Dem Newsom up 58-38 on GOPer Cox. [Cook: Solid D]

-- IL gov: Victory Research poll has Dem Pritzker up 49-33 on GOP incumbent Rauner [no MOE listed]. [Cook: Solid D]

-- OK gov: Sooner Poll has GOPer Stitt up 47-44 on Dem Edmondson [MOE: +/- 5.3%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- GA gov: Trafalgar Group poll has GOPer Kemp up 52-40 on Dem Abrams [MOE: +/- 2.1%]. [Cook: Tossup] => This one is completely bonkers - this race has been heavily polled, and everyone's had it within about three points. I'm not a fan of "look at the crosstabs" but they have Abrams support with African-Americans at 66%??? Points for publishing it, I guess.

-- NY gov: Siena poll has Dem incumbent Cuomo up 49-36 on GOPer Molinaro. Downballot: Comptroller: Dem incumbent up 62-25 on GOPer Trichter. AG: Dem James up 49-37 on GOPer Wofford.

-- NM gov: Research & Polling has Dem Lujan Grisham up 53-43 on GOPer Pearce. [Cook: Lean D]

-- CA gov: Probolsky Research has Dem Newsom up 47-37 on GOPer Cox.

-- MI gov: Target Insyght poll has Dem Whitmer up 48-44 on GOPer Schuette.

-- Dave Weigel reminds us that there are several races (House, Senate, and governor) that could take days to finish counting. It's not inconceivable that we could not know who controls either house of Congress for a week.

-- Nevada voting guru Jon Ralston makes his predictions based on early vote. Usually, you don't want to put much stock in early vote, but a) Nevada has a very high portion of their vote then and b) Ralston knows Nevada. tl;dr: Sen and Gov Lean D, NV-03, Lean D, NV-04 Likely D.

** Averages & forecasts:

-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.3 (50.5/42.2)

-- 538 House forecast (classic): 86.0% chance of Dem control

-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 16.3% chance of Dem control

-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 23.6 states.

Elections news - November 3, 2018

// 3 days until Election Day //

** 2018 Senate:

-- WI: Emerson poll has Dem incumbent Baldwin up 53-44 on GOPer Vukmir [MOE: +/- 4.1%].

-- FL: St Pete Polls has GOPer SScott up 49-48 on Dem incumbent Nelson [MOE: +/- 1.9%].

-- NV: Trafalgar Group poll has GOP incumbent Heller up 49-46 on Dem Rosen [MOE: +/- 1.9%].

-- MO: Remington Research poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill tied 47-47 with GOPer Hawley [MOE: +/- 2.6%]. => Remington's last poll a week ago had Hawley +4, so this may be a positive sign.

-- TX: Change Research poll has Dem O'Rourke tied 49-49 with GOP incumbent Cruz [no MOE listed}. => I certainly don't mind seeing this, but apparently CR is using some new methodology that's yet to be fully validated. Still, it's worth remembering how voter turnout model dependent this race is.

** 2018 House:

-- IA-03: Emerson poll has Dem Axne up 46-45 on GOP incumbent Young [MOE: +/- 5.3%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- IA-04: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent King up 51-42 on Dem Scholten [MOE: +/- 5.5%]. [Trump 61-34 | Cook: Lean R]

-- CO-03: JMC/BBC poll has GOP incumbent Tipton up 46-41 on Dem Mitsch Bush [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Trump 52-40 | Cook: Likely R]

-- AK-AL: GOP incumbent Young appears to be in trouble, as a GOP SuperPAC is parachuting in with six figures to help GOTV. The ironically named Young has been in office since 1973. [Trump 53-38 | Cook: Lean R]

-- FYI, a bunch of the Siena/NYT polls should be wrapping up tomorrow, most all of which look pretty solid for the Democrats. That's probably the last big bunch of polling we'll get.

-- Silver: GOP needs a systematic polling error to hold the House. By the same token, a systematic error the other way would mean a Dem blowout.

-- Lousy performance by the GOP in top of the ticket races in PA could have a big impact downballot (just like you read here yesteday!).

** Odds & ends:

-- IA gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Reynolds up 49-45 on Dem Hubbell [MOE: +/- 2.7%].
-- Selzer poll has Hubbell up 46-44 [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. => FWIW, the Selzer poll is the "gold standard" Iowa poll.

-- GA gov: Emerson poll has GOPer Kemp up 49-47 on Dem Abrams [MOE: +/- 3.7%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NV gov: Same Trafalgar Group poll has GOPer Laxalt up 47-45 on Dem Sisolak. [Cook: Tossup]

-- WI gov: Same Emerson poll has Dem Evers up 51-46 on GOP incumbent Walker. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NH gov: Change Research poll has GOP incumbent Sununu up 47-46 on Dem Kelly [no MOE listed]. [Cook: Lean R] => This race has been pretty much seen as a foregone conclusion, but there's been indications it is tightening, and both parties are putting in money.

-- FL gov: Same survey from St Pete Polls has Dem Gillum up 48-46 on GOPer DeSantis. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NC downballot: PPP poll has:

-- Supreme Court: Dem Earls at 47, GOPer Jackson at 23, pseudo-GOPer Anglin at 14.
-- Max income rate: YES 50-32
-- Voter ID: YES 57-34
-- Hijack governor ability to make judicial appts: NO 43-29
-- Hijack governor ability to fill Election Board seats: NO 40-32

-- Rakich look at major ballot measures up this week.

** Averages & forecasts:

-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.3 (50.5/42.2)

-- 538 House forecast (classic): 85.9% chance of Dem control

-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 16.4% chance of Dem control

-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 23.8 states.

Elections news - November 2, 2018

// 4 days until Election Day //

** 2018 Senate:

=> FWIW, these Harris Interactive polls seem kind of wacky.

-- AZ:

-- Harris Interactive poll has GOPer McSally up 48-42 on Dem Sinema [no MOE listed on any of these Harris Interactive polls].
-- Vox Populi poll has Sinema up 47-32 [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

-- CA: YouGov poll has incumbent Feinstein up 36-29 on de León [MOE: +/- 3.1%].

-- FL:

-- Harris Interactive poll has GOPer Scott up 47-46 on Dem incumbent Nelson.
-- Vox Populi poll has Scott up 48-43 [MOE: +/- 3.7%].

-- IN: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent Donnelly tied 42-42 with GOPer Braun.

-- MO: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill up 46-44 on GOPer Hawley.

-- MT: Harris Interactive poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 48-41 on GOPer Rosendale.

-- NJ: Stockton U poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 51-39 on GOPer Hugin [MOE not listed].

-- NV:

-- Harris Interactive poll has Dem Rosen up 46-43 on GOP incumbent Heller.
-- Gravis poll has Rosen up 47-45 [MOE +/- 3.5%].

-- PA: Muhlenberg College poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 54-40 on GOPer Barletta [MOE +/- 5.5%].

-- TN: ETSU poll has Dem Bredesen tied 44-44 with GOPer Blackburn [MOE +/- 4.0%].

** 2018 House:

-- CA-45: Siena poll has Dem Porter up 48-46 on GOP incumbent Walters [MOE +/- 4.6%]. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- IA-01: Siena poll has Dem Finkenauer up 46-39 on GOP incumbent Blum [MOE +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NY-27: Dixie Strategies poll has GOP incumbent Collins up 45-38 on Dem McMurray [no MOE listed]. [Trump 60-35 | Cook: Lean R]

-- CA-48: TPStrat Research poll has GOP incumbent Rohrabacher up 51-42 on Dem Rouda [MOE +/- 4.7%]. [Clinton 48-46 | Cook: Tossup]

-- CA-49: Survey USA poll has Dem Levin up 51-44 on GOPer Harkey [MOE +/- 5.4%]. [Clinton 51-43 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NC-09: Controversial statements from GOP candidate Harris emerged where he said Jews and Muslims needed to convert to Christianity to reach Middle East peace. [Trump 54-43 | Cook: Tossup]

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: [Cook: Likely R]

-- Same Harris Interactive poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 57-36 on Dem Garcia.
-- Same Vox Populi poll has Ducey up 54-46.

-- CA gov: Same YouGov poll has Dem Newsom up 53-34 on GOPer Cox. Downballot: Prop 6 (repeal gas tax): NO 47-34. Prop 10 (allow rent control): NO 42-33.

-- FL gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Same Harris Interactive poll has Dem Gillum up 48-44 on GOPer DeSantis.
-- Same Vox Populi poll has Gillum up 53-47.

-- ME gov: Slingshot Strategies has Dem Mills at 55, GOPer Moody at 38, indy Hayes at 7 [MOE not listed]. [Cook: Tossup] => It's less than a week until the election, and you're still doing a registered voters poll? [eyes emoji]

-- NV gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Same Harris Interactive poll has Dem Sisolak up 46-44 on GOPer Laxalt.
-- Same Gravis poll has Sisolak up 46-44.

-- PA gov: Same Muhlenberg poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 58-37 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D] => Seems to confirm yesterday's F&M poll. Could have major implications for PA legislature.

-- IA gov: U of Iowa poll has Dem Hubbell up 44-40 on GOP incumbent Reynolds [MOE: +/- 4.5%] [Cook: Tossup]

** Averages & forecasts:

-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.3 (50.5/42.2)

-- 538 House forecast (classic): 84.8% chance of Dem control

-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 15.7% chance of Dem control

-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 23.9 states.

Elections news - November 1, 2018

// 5 days until Election Day //

** 2018 Senate:

-- AZ: OH Predictive insights poll has GOPer McSally up 52-45 on Dem Sinema [MOE: +/ 4.0%]. => OHPI has been consistently right of anyone else polling AZ - I don't think anyone else has ever had a McSally lead above 2. | Green candidate drops out, endorses Sinema. She was polling 4-5%, but Arizona is a heavy early vote state, so probably will not matter much. Can't hurt, though.

-- FL:

-- Cygnal poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 50-48 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/ 4.4%].
-- SSRS poll has Nelson up 49-47 [MOE: +/ 4.3%].
-- St Pete Polls has Nelson up 49-47 [MOE: +/ 2.0%].
-- Trafalgar poll has Nelson up 49-47 [MOE: +/ 1.9%].

-- OH: Cygnal poll has Dem incumbent Brown up 52-42 on GOPer Renacci [MOE: +/ 4.4%].

-- TN:

-- SSRS poll has GOPer Blackburn up 49-45 on Dem Bredesen [MOE: +/ 4.3%].
-- Emerson poll has Blackburn up 52-44 [MOE: +/ 4.0%].

-- WV:

-- Research America poll has Dem incumbent Manchin up 45-40 on GOPer Morrisey [MOE: +/ 4.9%].
-- Emerson poll has Manchin up 47-42 [MOE: +/ 3.2%].

-- TX: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Cruz up 50-47 on Dem O'Rourke [MOE: +/ 3.7%].

-- PA: F&M poll has Dem incumbent Casey up 50-35 on GOPer Barletta [MOE: +/ 6.0%].

** 2018 House:

-- VA-10: GMU poll has Dem Wexton up 54-43 on GOP incumbent Comstock [MOE: +/ 6.5%]. [Clinton 52-42 | Cook: Lean D]

-- AK-AL: Alaska Survey Research poll has indy/Dem Galvin up 49-48 on GOP incumbent Young [no MOE listed]. [Trump 53-38 | Cook: Lean R] => This one might be too good to be true.

-- NM-02: Carroll Strategies poll has GOPer Herrell up 47-42 on Dem Torres Small [MOE: +/ 2.8%]. [Trump 50-40 | Cook: Tossup]

-- WV-03: Emerson poll has GOPer Miller up 52-45 on Dem Ojeda [MOE: +/ 5.5%]. [Trump 73-23 | Cook: Lean R]

-- 538: Dems and the suburbs.

-- NYT has GOP leaking bad internals as they prepare for finger pointing.

** Odds & ends:

-- CO gov: [Cook: Lean D]

-- Keating-OnSight-Martin poll has Dem Polis up 50-42 on GOPer Stapleton [MOE: +/ 4.3%].
-- Magellan Strategies poll has Polis up 45-40 [MOE: +/ 4.4%].

-- FL gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Same Cygnal poll has Dem Gillum tied 47-47 with GOPer DeSantis.
-- Same SSRS poll has Gillum up 49-48.
-- Same Trafalgar poll has Gillum up 43-42.

-- GA gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Cygnal poll has GOPer Kemp up 49-47 on Dem Abrams [MOE: +/ 4.4%]. | Downballot: AG: GOPer Carr up 53-45 on Dem Bailey. SOS: GOPer Raffensperger up 47-45 on Dem Barrow.
-- UGA poll has it tied 47-47 [MOE: +/ 4.4%]. Downballot: SOS: Barrow up 42-41.

-- MN gov: Survey USA poll has Dem Walz up 49-41 on GOPer Johnson [MOE: +/ 5.3%]. [Cook: Likely D] | Downballot: AG: Dem Ellison up 44-40 on GOPer Wardlow.

-- CT gov: [Cook: Tossup]

-- Emerson poll has Dem Lamont up 46-39 on GOPer Stefanowski [MOE: +/ 3.7%].
-- Sacred Heart poll has Stefanowski up 40-38 [MOE: +/ 4.3%]. => Note that this is the first poll that has Stefanowski up, and Sacred Heart is apparently new to polling. Grain of salt, I think.

-- NM gov: Same Carroll Strategies poll has Dem Lujan Grisham up 51-46 on GOPer Pearce. [Cook: Lean D]

-- PA gov: Same F&M poll has Dem incumbent Wolf up 59-33 on GOPer Wagner. [Cook: Likely D] => This total blowout, combined with solid Casey performance in the Senate race is in the range where it starts reducing GOP turnout, which might explain the good House numbers we've seen from Susquehanna. Also could have implications for the state legislature, where Dems have an outside shot at each chamber.

-- OH gov: Same Cygnal poll has Dem Cordray tied 43-43 with GOPer DeWine. [Cook: Tossup]

-- SD gov: Mason-Dixon poll has GOPer Noem up 43-40 on Dem Sutton [MOE: +/- 4.5%].

-- DKE summary of the governors' races. Current polling has Dems on track to pick up 10 seats.

-- Governing Magazine look at big state Supreme Court races. Progressives could land some important seats.

** Averages & forecasts:

-- 538 generic ballot average: D+8.5 (50.3/41.8)

-- 538 House forecast (classic): 85.0% chance of Dem control

-- 538 Senate forecast (classic): 15.2% chance of Dem control

-- 538 governor forecast (classic): Dems favored to control 24.0 states.