I'm slowly starting back up with Elections News. Probably just weekly for a little bit.
- Several GOP House retirements this week:
- Paul Mitchell (R-MI-10) (not the hair product guy). District went Trump 64-32, and has a Cook PVI of R+13, so this one should stay Safe R.
- Pete Olson (R-TX-22). District went Trump 52-44, Romney 62-37. Olson only won by 4 points in 2018, and his opponent is running again. Race is a Tossup.
- Martha Roby (R - AL-02). District went Trump 65-33, should stay Safe R. Fun fact: out of 197 House Republicans, there are only 13 women, and so far, two of them are retiring.
Retirements are a weak indicator for House results - Democrats aren't getting MI-10 for anything short of a Roy Moore situation. But it's still a positive sign, especially this far out.
- The early Congressional forecast (it's very early!) from Larry Sabato's team:
The main takeaway points from these results are that, based on the president’s current net approval rating and the current House generic ballot, the Democrats would be likely to make modest gains in the House elections and have a real chance to win control of the Senate.
- Turnout is expected to be at historic highs in 2020, but it's less clear if that would benefit the Democrats, says Nate Cohn.
- Also, Nates Cohn and Silver have been in an extensive Twitter pissing match about forecasts and...well it's not really clear what the debate is. One takeaway is that Nate Silver seems like kind of a dick. But the major takeaway is: it's really early, Trump could win...or he could not. Let's think about this stuff more in the spring, you know?
- Critical elections in Virginia this fall, where the entire legislature is up for election, and where the Dems need just a few gains to control both chambers (two seats in the House, one in the Senate), and thus, have unified control of state government. So far, they're way ahead in the money race. Some thoughts here from VA analyst Ben Tribbett (tl;dr: optimistic on Senate, slightly less so on House). Decent Reddit discussion on vulnerable seats here. And there is potential for some more reformist DAs to get elected.
- Also in VA, the state board of elections still needs to rule on whether Del Nick Freitas can be on the ballot after a confusing set of developments (he failed to submit required paperwork, then dropped out in an effort to not be force out, then was re-nominated by the state GOP, but maybe they aren't even allowed to do that). If he's ruled off, he would need to run as a write-in. This is a very red district, and the party has its hands full elsewhere; he might just be left for dead, which could result in a surprise Dem freebie.
- NC-09 special: First general election polling here has Dem McCready tied 46-46 with GOPer Bishop. That's really not a good sign for Dems - the poll is a McCready internal, he's had the nomination for months while Bishop was in a primary battle, and McCready arguably won the original election (this was the one with the absentee ballot fraud). McCready has a big cash advantage, though, so he may still have some time. Election is Sep 10.
- Conserva-Dem primary watch:
- MA-01: Holyoke mayor Alex Morse is running in the primary against long-time Rep Richard Neal (he of the Ways & Means chair and failing to get Trump's tax returns).
- NY-09: Community organizer Adem Bunkeddeko in a re-match against Rep Yvette Clarke. Clarke held on 53-47 last time.
- Puerto Rico governor Ricardo Rosselló is resigning in the wake of massive protests, but it's a little unclear who will be replacing him.
- ME-SEN: While Susan Collins has been raising money like normal, she's been making some waffly noises about actually running again in the light of a sharply dropping approval rating. If she dropped out, this race would move from Lean R to Lean D.
- In the ultra-tight Queens DA race, party machine-backed Melinda Katz looks to have about a 60 vote lead over Tiffany Cabán after a recount. Cabán is planning to sue over the disqualification of a fair number of votes for seemingly trivial errors.
- In a very bad decision, a judicial panel found that, although Texas had committed illegal racial gerrymandering in state legislative maps, the state would not be put under Voting Rights Act pre-clearance (forcing it to get DOJ approval before making changes). At this point, pre-clearance - which for decades had prevented state acts of voting-related malfeasance - is basically dead.
- Potentially good news from Florida in the ongoing battle over Amendment 4. You will recall that this amendment automatically restored voting rights for former felons, which the GOP-controlled legislature then attempted to kneecap by requiring those people to pay all fines and fees first. However, Miami-Dade officials believe that this applies only to fines in the original sentencing document - the vast majority of fines are not assessed then. This is one of several efforts to mitigate the impact of the law, aside from the lawsuits filed against it.
- Here's a nifty tool from Daniel Nichanian to help track criminal justice developments on a state and local level. Good things (New Jersey limits maximum allowable solitary detention time) and bad (Hawaii governor vetoes civil forfeiture reforms) are happening all the time below the radar.