It's so weird how the first guys to endorse Trump keep getting indicted, and more in today's ELECTIONS NEWS:
HOUSE
- A state court refused to block the revised Congressional district map that the GOP-controlled legislature passed last month, basically on the grounds that it's too close to the election. Dems declined to appeal to the NC SC, so these maps are what we're using next year.
- All expectations are that this will convert the current 10-3 GOP delegation to an 8-5 GOP one.
- NC-02: Goes from Lean R to Likely D. Incumbent Holding looks like he's going to retire (at least until 2022).
- NC-06: Goes from Solid R to Likely D. Incumbent Mark Walker has a couple of options - he might retire, might try to primary out NC-13's Ted Budd, or might try to primary out Sen Tillis.
- CA-50: Rep Duncan Hunter (R) has pled guilty in his federal indictment. The deal did not require him to resign, and Hunter's been sending mixed signals on it. District is Likely R to Solid R.
- KS-02: Rep Steve Watkins (R) has gotten himself into potentially serious hot water after registering to vote at the address of a UPS store, and then voting. That could mean both federal and state felony charges; the county DA is investigating. Not clear if this is related to that mystery scandal that Watkins seemed to have been tied up with a few months back.
- WA-10: Rep Denny Heck (D) is retiring. District is probably Solid D as long as there isn't any funny business with the top two.
SENATE
- AL: Alabama SOS John Merrill has dropped out of the GOP primary. Merrill had looked like he had a pretty good shot until Jeff Sessions jumped into the race. Besides Sessions and sex offender Roy Moore, Rep Bradley Byrne and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville are in play.
- GA: As predicted, gov Kemp named financial figure Kelly Loeffler to fill the Isaakson vacancy. This is probably a mixed bag for Democrats. If - as threatened - Rep Doug Collins runs in the special, that will virtually ensure that the GOP can't crack 50%; if Dems line up behind a single candidate, they could pull it off in the first round. On the other hand, Loeffler is rich as Croesus and has promised to dump $20M into the race.
- MT: Gov Steve Bullock ended his presidential run, but still is saying he won't enter the Senate race. Bullock is considered the only Dem who would have a shot.
- NC: In a surprise, wealthy business dude Garland Tucker ended his GOP primary bid against Sen Tillis. If Rep Walker doesn't jump in (see above), that's it for major competition. Filing deadline is Dec 20.
- AK: The DSCC endorsed independent Al Gross - Alaska has this deal where you can run as an independent and a party nominee. It's worth a shot to pick up some extra votes.
- KS: SecState Pompeo still saying he's not going to run here, but he's also been talking to Sheldon Adelson and Charles Koch about backing him, which doesn't sound like no to me.
STATES
- Beto O'Rourke is now focusing his energy on flipping the Texas House. Dems need to pick up nine seats, which coincidentally is how many GOP-held districts voted for Beto in the 2018 Senate race. One of those incumbents has just dropped out after some racist comments, which can't hurt.
- Politico reports that the RSLC (equivalent of the DLCC) is "in turmoil." This is ill time for the GOP, as this is a key cycle as we head into re-districting.
ODDS & ENDS
- A near disaster on Election Day in Northampton, PA underscores the need for paper backups of vote tallies.
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