Elections news - April 16, 2020

Mark Kelly should really use "Rocketman" on his commercials, and more in today's ELECTIONS NEWS:

HOUSE

• MI-03: Rep Justin Amash continued to hint strongly that he'd run for president, either as an indy or under the Libertarian banner.  If he stays in the House, Dems have a decent shot at the seat in a three-way race; if he jumps, district should stay Safe R.

SENATE

• AZ: OH Predictive Insights poll has Dem Kelly up 51-42 on GOP incumbent McSally.
• ME: Poll has Sen Collins's approval down to -15 (37/52).
• KS: PPP poll has Dem Bollier up 44-42 on possible GOP nominee Kobach.  Kobach is the only candidate who could give Dems a shot to sneak by in this race; the GOP primary is fractured, though, and his name recognition and credibility with the hard right might be enough to get him the nomination.
• NC: Civitas Institute poll has GOP incumbent Tillis up 38-34 on Dem Cunningham.
• MA: In a surprising development, incumbent Senator Markey is well short of the signatures he needs to appear on the primary ballot.  With only a few weeks until the deadline, the coronavirus could make it challenging to get the names he needs in time.
• GA (B): Support from the party no longer appears assured for Sen Kelly Loeffler, as Re Drew Ferguson breaks ranks to endorse Rep Doug Collins.   McConnell has gone quiet as further revelations about her unsavory stock dealings emerge.

STATES & LOCAL

• NC gov: Civitas Institute poll has Dem incumbent Cooper up 50-33 on GOPer Forest.
• In what has gotta be one of the biggest examples of karma in a while, the Wisconsin GOP pulled out every conceivable stop to rig a state supreme court race in their favor, and then saw the liberal candidate win by over 10 points.  There's no reason to extrapolate this to the presidential, but it does narrow conservative control of the court to 4-3.  Barring anything unforeseen, the left's next shot at flipping control is 2023.
• Looking for races with a big bang for your buck?  Here's a list of pivotal races for state executive and legislative offices from Cook.
• 538 overview of 2020 governor races.

ODDS & ENDS

• A New Hampshire court has struck down SB3, the law that sought to make it more difficult for college students to vote.
• Federal appeals court finds that the Michigan independent redistricting commission is constitutional.  The MI legislature is heavily gerrymandered; this will be a major impact on redistricting there.