Elections news - June 14, 2020

Happy Flag Day and more in today's ELECTIONS NEWS:

HOUSE

• Selzer poll of the Iowa races has Dems in good position in the three winnable races (no idea why they went with generic candidates, since the primary is over):
  • IA-01: Dem 48, GOP 42
  • IA-02: Dem 53, GOP 35
  • IA-03: Dem 52, GOP 36
  • IA-04: GOP 57, Dem 35
• GA-13: After initial indications were that conservaDem incumbent David Scott would be forced into a runoff, he squeaked it out over 50%.  However, given that his progressive challenger entered late and had near zero money, it definitely indicates weakness in 2022.
• GA-07: In another squeaker, Carolyn Bourdeaux just avoided a runoff in what is seen as a major pickup opportunity for Dems.
• NY-16: The New York Times has endorsed progressive challenger Jamaal Bowman over embattled incumbent Eliot Engel, as did Bernie Sanders and AOC.  Bowman's been raising big bucks in light of Engel's serial gaffes.
• VA-05: This is a long story.  But the short version is that the local GOP has given the nomination to Bob Good (there's a ballot qualification snafu, but it's assumed he will in fact be able to get around it and be listed in November), turfing out incumbent Denver Riggleman (you might remember him, the Bigfoot porn guy).  The hard feelings over the internecine battle, and Good's extreme-even-for-rural-Virginia positions have had Cook and Sabato both move the race to Leans R.  Riggleman is the third incumbent to lose a primary so far, and the first Trump-endorsed.

SENATE

• GA (A): Jon Ossoff squeaked over the 50% mark in the primary election.  He thus avoids a runoff and can move straight to the general against GOP incumbent Purdue.
• IA: Selzer poll has Dem Greenfield up 46-43 on GOP incumbent Ernst.  PPP and Civiqs had very similar numbers recently, so it seems fair to say that Ernst is in trouble.
• AZ: Fox poll has Dem Kelly up 50-37 on GOP incumbent McSally.  Similar numbers recently from two AZ polling outfits, so McSally is very definitely in trouble.
• NC: PPP poll has Dem Cunningham up 41-41 on GOP incumbent Tillis.
• MI: EPIC-MRA poll has Dem incumbent Peters up 51-36 on GOPer James.
• MS: PPP poll has GOP incumbent Hyde-Smith up 49-41 on Dem Espy.
• AK: Cook moves race from Solid R to Likely R, as Dem opportunities continue to spread.
• CO: Likely Dem nominee gov Hickenlooper has been putting his foot in it a lot of late.  Probably not enough to jeopardize the race against unpopular incumbent Gardner, but still worrying.

STATES & LOCAL

• NC gov: Same PPP poll has Dem incumbent Cooper up 50-39 on GOP challenger Forest.
• Progressive Brandon Scott won the Baltimore mayoral election.
• PA House speaker Mike Turzai resigning his seat early, effective tomorrow.  Unclear if we'll get a special - the incoming Speaker has some latitude for short lead-time vacancies.  Turzai had already planned to retire to make private sector coin (and in light of his rapidly blueing district), but unclear what brought about the resignation.
• Reform-ish candidate wins Muscogee County, Georgia DA election.  Which is nice, but it's the backstory that is nutzo.
• Nina Ahmad won the Dem nomination for PA Auditor General, the first woman of color to win nomination for a statewide office there.  It's a little murky, but she was also seen as the most progressive candidate.
• Progressive challenger wins Athens-Clarke County, Georgia DA nomination.  Pleasingly, the campaign centered around the incumbent's cooperation with ICE and fundraising from bail bond firms.