Elections news - June 25, 2020

The Bronx is up, but the Battery's down and more in today's ELECTION NEWS:

PRIMARY RESULTS

Virginia, Kentucky, and New York had primary elections Tuesday (plus some runoffs elsewhere). There's lots we don't know for sure yet, due to high mail voting and delayed counts in KY and NY. But what we do know so far is pretty good:

KY-04: Rep Massie (R), whom Trump had called to be kicked out of the party, won the GOP primary in a rout (like 88-12).
KY SEN: Dem primary matchup between moderate McGrath and late charging progressive Booker is still up in the air. However, there are some indications that Booker may be in the more solid position based on outstanding vote geography.
NY-09: Rep Yvette Clarke looks to have survived a rematch challenge by Adem Bunkeddeko, who had come close to knocking her off in 2018.
NY-12: Rep Carolyn Maloney clinging to a narrow lead over Suraj Patel, but based on the geography of outstanding ballots, she's likely okay.
NY-14: Winning was never a question, but some thought AOC might be in for a bit of a scare against a wealthy rival. Nope, she romped with 70% or so of the vote.
NY-15: Dems avoided a disaster here, as homophobic, Trump-loving Díaz took third after looking very strong earlier in the race. Totally fine Torres looks to be the winner.
NY-16: In a big shakeup that had looked likely for a while, Jamaal Bowman has (very, very likely) turfed out longtime Rep Eliot Engel. Engel is a replacement-level Dem for the most part, but he's 73, has been there since '89, and his worst area is foreign policy, which is a problem given that he chairs Foreign Affairs. Bowman is great, and this is a huge shot across the bow of Dem leadership.
NY-17: Another disaster averted as former IDC member Carlucci goes down in flames here, and progressive Mondaire Jones wins. Jones and Torres in NY-15 will be the first gay black members of Congress.
NY-27: State Sen Jacobs (R) won the special election here for Collins' seat, as well as the nomination for the general.
Lots of progressive vs moderate/conservatives matchups in the NY Assembly and Senate. Challenges from the right appear to have failed in: AD-35, AD-40, AD-43, AD-65, SD-18. Likely progressive gains in: AD-34, AD-36, AD-149, SD-25.
Also likely reformer DA wins in NY in Westchester County and Tompkins (Ithaca) County, both of which had incumbents enmeshed in police coverups.
VA-02: Former Rep Taylor wins the GOP bid to setup a rematch with his vanquisher, Rep Luria.
VA-05: Big surprise in the Dem primary here as progressive Cameron Webb wins in a walk. Given the cluster that has been the GOP side, coupled with Webb's likely ability to drive Black turnout, Dems might possibly sneak a win out of this one.
NC-11: Another shocker, as Bennett - endorsed by both former seat holder Mark Meadows and Trump - was smoked by a 24-year old kid.

Overall, looks like a good night for Black candidates, a good night for progressive candidates. The progressive strategy of safe seat primaries appears to be bearing fruit.

HOUSE

PA-01: PPP internal from Dem Finello has her trailing GOP incumbent Fitzpatrick 40-38. A Victoria Research poll for a Dem PAC has it deadlocked at 46. Fitzpatrick is a tough nut to crack, but Biden's coattails may pull Finello over the line - district went 49-47 Clinton in 2016, but PPP has Biden up 56-40. [Cook: Lean R]
PA-10: GBAO internal for Dem DePasquale has him trailing 50-47 to incumbent GOP Rep Perry. District is moving left, and DePasquale is well known, but Perry is popular. [Cook: Tossup]
AK-AL: Data For Progress poll has presumptive Dem nominee Galvin up 43-42 on GOP incumbent Young. A million people have tried and failed to dislodge Young, but Galvin got within 7 points in 2018. [Cook: Likely R]
MI-03: Anzalone Liszt Grove internal for Dem Scholten shows her neck and neck with either GOP nominee at about 40. This is the traditionally conservative Amash seat; he could still theoretically run as an independent. [Cook: Lean R]
MN-01: Garin-Hart-Yang internal for Dem Feehan has him edging GOP Rep Hagedorn. District swung towards Trump, but back left in the midterms, when Hagedorn edged Feehan by under a point. [Cook: Likely R]
GA-07: PPP poll has Dem Bourdeaux up 42-39 over GOPer McCormick. This is a classic suburban district moving rapidly left. [Cook: Tossup]
GA-14: GOP leadership kind of halfheartedly chastising Marjorie Greene in the wake of her anti-Semitic and racist comments coming to light. Greene is seen as likely to win the runoff at this point (so far), meaning the GOP will have picked up a replacement for Steve King in the "crazy racist" slot. Seat is safely R.

SENATE

AZ: Civiqs poll has Dem Kelly up 51-42 on GOP incumbent McSally. Siena has it Kelly 47-38. [Cook: Tossup]
MI: Siena poll has Dem incumbent Peters up 41-31 on GOPer James. [Cook: Lean D]
GA(A): PPP poll has Dem Ossoff edging GOP incumbent Perdue. [Cook: Lean R]
NM: PPP poll has Dem Lujan up 48-34 on GOPer Ronchetti. [Cook: Likely D]
NC: PPP poll has Dem Cunningham up 44-40 on GOP incumbent Tillis. Siena has it Cunningham 42-39.
MT: Cook moves race to Tossup.
NE: Dems are trying to get their nominee to drop out after disturbing sexual harassment allegations surfaced. [Cook: Solid R]
AL: FM3 internal for Dem Jones has him trailing likely GOP nominee Tuberville by 47-44. When your own internal has you trailing as an incumbent, it's not great. GOP firm Cygnal has Jones losing by 10 or more points, which looks more likely. [Cook: Lean R]
GA(B): Both the DOJ and the Senate Ethics Committee have ended their investigations into Sen Loeffler's stock trades. The damage has likely been done to her approvals already, though, and if you're a Republican voter, you have a credible option in Collins. [Cook: Lean R]
KS: Bad look for more mainstream GOP candidate Rep Marshall as a story emerged that he had pulled strings to get out of a serious legal situation. [Cook: Lean R]
CO: There's a bunch of foofaraw in this race, as Hickenlooper has stumbled a few times, but I'm not going to get deep on it, because a) I don't think he'll lose the primary - Romanoff is underwhelming - and b) I don't think he'll lose the general, particularly in this environment. [Cook: Tossup]

STATES & CITIES

MO gov: Remington Research poll has GOP incumbent Parson up 50-41 on Dem Galloway. [Cook: Likely R]
NC gov: PPP poll has Dem incumbent Cooper up 50-41 on GOPer Forest, while Siena has Cooper up 50-39. [Cook: Lean D]
VA gov: 2021 is right around the corner, and we're starting to see people jump in for the Virginia governor's race (which is odd years, and single term-limited). State Sen Jennifer McClellan (Richmond area) is in; she'd be the first Black woman elected governor anywhere (of course, so would fellow candidate Del Jennifer Carroll Foy).
Tough on crime Los Angeles County DA Lacey continues to lose endorsements - this time from Rep Adam Schiff. Lacey has been getting heavy criticism of her reluctance to pursue charges against cops, and obviously current events are spotlighting that.
DLCC expanded their target flip list of legislatures. This is a critical year before redistricting.

ODDS & ENDS