Surely one day New York will finish counting votes, and more in today's ELECTIONS NEWS:
PRIMARY RESULTS
Primaries were held Tuesday in Maine, and runoffs in Louisiana and Texas and last week in New Jersey (I'm behind). Some results of note:
- ME SEN: Sarah Gideon easily won the Dem nom. She also now gets that $4M that was raised for the nominee post-Kavanaugh.
- AL SEN: In the GOP runoff, Tommy Tuberville easily beat former Senator Sessions.
- TX SEN: Dem nom was won fairly narrowly by MJ Hegar. There was some effort to cast this as the KY SEN primary redux (white woman outsider vs Black legislator), but the ideological breakdown is less clear in the Texas race. FWIW, attempted meddling in the primary by the GOP seems to indicate that Hegar was not the candidate they wanted to face.
- NJ-02: Amy Kennedy won the Dem nom. While not particularly progressive, she was opposed by the South Jersey machine, one of a number of signs that it's power may be starting to wane. And that is good news for the left.
- Progressive wins in nominations for TX-10 and TX-24, both of which are good opportunities for pickups in the fall.
- Big progressive wins in Travis County, TX (Austin), where reformer candidates took both the DA and county attorney offices. DA winner José Garza is really pushing the edge of criminal justice reform, this is exciting.
- The incumbent Westchester County, NY DA was unseated after a scandal involving corrupt cops.
HOUSE
- MT-AL: Univ of MT poll has GOPer Rosendale up 45-37 on Dem Williams and a Civiqs poll has him up 49-47. A Williams internal, on the other hand, has it tied up at 47, and a PPP poll has them tied at 44. [Lean R]
- AK-AL: PPP poll has Dem Galvin up 43-41 on GOP incumbent Young. [Likely R]
- NE-02: Internal poll has Dem Eastman up 50-49 on GOP incumbent Bacon. [Tossup]
- KS-02: The voting questions that have swirled around GOP Rep Steve Watkins finally became clearer as the DA announced charges of four counts of voting fraud against him (three of them felonies). Fellow Rep Ron Estes has endorsed Watkins' challenger as a result. [Lean R]
- MI-03: Rep Justin Amash had been toying with running again as an independent or Libertarian, but has dropped the idea. [Lean R]
- Big ratings move, as Cook moves 20 races, all towards the left.
SENATE
- MT: Same Univ of MT poll has Dem Bullock up 47-43 on GOP incumbent Daines. | Same PPP poll has Bullock up 46-44. | Same Civiqs poll has Daines up 49-47. [Tossup]
- IA: GQR poll has Dem Greenfield up 49-47 on GOP incumbent Ernst. [Lean R]
- ME: PPP poll has Dem Gideon up 47-43 on GOP incumbent Collins. [Tossup]
- MI: PPP poll has Dem incumbent Peters up 47-39 on GOPer James. [Lean D]
- AZ: Global Strategy Group poll has Dem Kelly up 49-42 on GOP incumbent McSally. | YouGov has Kelly up 46-42. | OHPI has Kelly up 52-43. [Tossup]
- AK: Same PPP poll has GOP incumbent Sullivan up 39-34 on Dem Gross. [Likely R]
- GA(B): Collins internal has Collins at 26, GOP incumbent Loeffler at 17, and Dem Lieberman at 15. Open primaries can be volatile, but this is pretty different from other polling, showing much more Loeffler support [Lean R]
- NC: PPP poll has Dem Cunningham up 47-39 on GOP incumbent Tillis. PPP does go on to note that the undecideds are quite pro-Trump, so this may be closer than it appears. [Tossup]
- KS: Dems are meddling in the GOP primary, running ads accusing Kris Kobach of being too conservative. This kind of thing is amusing, but rarely seems to work.
- Dems should be strong again in 2022, based on the seats that are up.
STATES & CITIES
- MT gov: Same Univ of MT poll has GOPer Gianforte up 46-36 on Dem Cooney. | Same PPP poll has Gianforte up 46-42. | Same Civiqs poll has Gianforte up 47-44. [Tossup]
- UT gov: Former gov Huntsman was mulling a write-in campaign after narrowly losing the GOP nomination - which might conceivably have given Dems a chance - but has decided against it. [Solid R]
- Tulchin Research poll of the Los Angeles County DA race has reformer Gascón up 35-32 on hardline incumbent Lacey. Three Dem congressmembers have dropper their Lacey endorsements recently.
- Indiana GOP has dumped scandal-plagued incumbent AG Curtis Hill for the fall ballot. Hill as nominee was probably the only chance Dems had of picking up the office.
ODDS & ENDS
- Chamber of Commerce - usually a big backer of the GOP - is spending 90% less this cycle on ads, adding to Republican worries.
- A ranked choice referendum will be on the ballot in Massachusetts in the fall.
- The Supreme Court declined to intervene in the ongoing litigation concerning Florida felon disenfranchisement, meaning that, at minimum, many people will be blocked from voting in the upcoming primary.
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