Elections news - July 5, 2020

Fourth of July makes for a quiet week, but we do have some ELECTIONS NEWS:

PRIMARY RESULTS

Oklahoma, Utah, and Colorado held primaries last Tuesday, and there were a few items of interest:

CO SEN: There had been some rumblings that support for Hickenlooper was maybe getting a bit soft after some recent gaffes, but he easily held off a challenge from Romanoff from the left.
CO-03: Big upset in the GOP primary here as incumbent Rep Tipton, who was Trump-endorsed, no less, ended up losing to local businesswoman and gun nut Boebert. Boebert is far enough out there - she's at lease Q-curious, for one thing - that this moves a race that would normally be in the Likely to Solid R range over to Leans to Likely. Still a reach for Dems, but could flip with a big enough Biden win.
OK-05: GOP primary here goes to a runoff (Bice and Neese), which is probably a little bit of help to Dem Rep Horn, who is likely the most endangered House Dem.
In OK-HD-88, an ACLU organizer primaried a more conservative Democrat. Also of interest in that Mauree Turner appears to be the first trans person to be elected to a state legislature (this is a safe Dem seat, so their election is a foregone conclusion).

HOUSE

VA-05: PPP poll has GOPer Good up 41-41 on Dem Webb. This race could be an unlikely Dem pickup, given the combination of an extremist GOP candidate and a Dem who really overperformed with Black voters - the DCCC has just added this to their Red to Blue program.
Sabato moves 11 ratings for House races, 10 left, as they see the blue-ing of the suburbs continuing.
Elections Daily look at where the Justice Democrats might target next.

SENATE

AL: ALG Research poll has Dem incumbent Jones losing narrowly to either GOP challenger (45-43 to Sessions, 47-44 to Tuberville). [Cook: Lean R]
GA(A): Fox News poll has GOP incumbent Perdue up 45-42 on Dem Ossoff. [Cook: Lean R]
CO: PPP poll has Dem Hickenlooper up 51-40 on GOP incumbent Gardner. [Cook: Tossup]
AZ: Data Orbital poll has Dem Kelly up 48-41 on GOP incumbent McSally. [Cook: Tossup]
NC: Fox News poll has Dem Cunningham up 39-37 on GOP incumbent Tillis. An ECU poll has it tied at 41. [Cook: Tossup]
TX: Fox news poll has GOP incumbent Cornyn up 10 points on either Dem candidate. [Cook: Likely R]
GA(B): PPP poll has GOP Rep Collins with 23, GOP incumbent Loeffler with 21, Dem Warnock with 20. This will go to a runoff, so Dems need to be in the top two. [Cook: Lean R]
KS: Club For Growth drops their negative ads against Rep Marshall, likely helping him hold off Kris Kobach. Primary is Aug 4. Meanwhile, the final GOP debate was cancelled after the non-Marshall candidates objected to the format. [Cook: Lean R]
KY: Amy McGrath held on to edge out Charles Booker for the Dem nomination here. [Cook: Likely R]

STATES & LOCAL

NC gov: Same ECU poll has Dem incumbent Cooper up 49-38 on GOPer Forest.
It was tight, but OK voters approved Medicaid expansion, which should help out about 200k residents.
Dems pick up a seat in a KY Senate special election, flipping a long-time read seat in SD-26.
MS will put repeal of its Jim Crow-era requirement that statewide candidates win a majority of house seats on the fall ballot. That's good, although it's unfortunate that as part of that, they'd put in a runoff requirement.
GOP gov Kemp tried another one of his election reschedulings to block a DA election in Athens, but a judge ruled the election must proceed.

ODDS & ENDS

Zugzwang