Elections news - August 9, 2020

All seven, and we'll watch them fall and more in today's ELECTIONS NEWS:

PRIMARY RESULTS

Plenty of drama from this week's multiple primaries, including the sixth and seventh House incumbents to be felled.  Results of note:

• Missouri voted 53-47 to expand Medicaid, extending medical coverage to 230k additional residents.  This is a constitutional change, so should be fairly safe from GOP meddling.
• KS SEN: In a race that ended surprisingly not close Rep Roger Marshall beat former SOS Kris Kobach 40-26 in the GOP primary here.  While this will make the Senate race a lot more challenging for Dems - Barbara Bollier is a strong candidate, but Kansas hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate since before WWII - having Kobach probably out of government for good is still a good thing.
• TN SEN: In a shocking upset, environmental advocate Marquita Bradshaw beat DSCC-backed James Mackler.  Mackler had led the funding race by $2.1M to $8k.  Realistically, neither candidate had much shot at GOP nominee Hagerty, but Bradshaw, who is Black, may be able to amplify some left messaging.
• WA gov: Dem incumbent Inslee easily won the to ptwo primary with 52%, and is a lock in November.  The more interesting action was for lt. gov, given that Inslee is seen likely to be named to a hypothetical Biden administration.  Dems locked down both slots for the general.  More moderate Rep Denny Heck will face off with progressive state Sen Marko Liias.
• MI-13:  There was a good bit of talk that Squad member Rep Rashida Tlaib was threatened, but she easily held on in her re-match with Detroit Council President Brenda Jones.
• KS-02: Scandal-plagued GOP incumbent Steve Watkins got walloped by state Treasurer Jake LaTurner.  As with Kobach, this makes the seat harder for Dems to flip, but it might be worth it to get this guy out of government.
• TN-05: Long-time Dem Rep Jim Cooper, a classic case of a rep too conservative for his seat, got a scare from lightly-regarded public defender Keeda Haynes.  Haynes will be someone to keep an eye on.
• WA-10: Some concerns about a Dem lockout here, with a 19 candidate field, but Dems managed to grab both spots.
• MO-01: Maybe the biggest shocker of the week, long-time Rep Lacy Clay was upset by community activist Cori Bush.  This is the equivalent of AOC's win, but Clay hadn't even been caught napping, he just wasn't representing what the community wanted anymore.
• Odious troglodyte Joe Arpaio failed in his comeback bid to recapture the Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) sheriff's office, losing the GOP primary to his former employee.  Dems have a good shot at holding the office in November.
• Mostly good news on the DA/prosecutor front, as progressive or reformist candidates won in St. Louis, Maricopa County, Pima County (AZ), and Ann Arbor (MI).  Disappointments in Wayne County (Detroit) and Lawrence, KS.
• Tragically, super scummy and Q-lovin' Arizona House member Jay Lawrence has lost his primary.

HOUSE

• TX-23: The incredibly close GOP primary (46 vote margin!) is going to a recount.  Presumably, this will only the help the Dems in a race that's already a good pickup opportunity. [Leans D]
• AZ-06: House Ethics Committee finally concluded its investigation of Rep David Schweiker [R], fining him $50k for serious violations of House rules and campaign finance laws. Likely helpful to Dems in what has been a bit of a sleeper race. [Tossup]
• Harry Enten analysis shows that (as you might expect) there's a significant correlation between which party is releasing more internal polls, and which does better in the general election.

SENATE

• AL: Morning Consult has GOPer Tuberville up 52-35 on Dem incumbent Jones. [Lean R]
• AZ: SSRS has Dem Kelly up 50-43 on GOP incumbent McSally.  Marist has Kelly up 53-41.  Morning Consult has Kelly up 52-36. [Lean D]
• CO: Morning Consult has Dem Hickenlooper up 48-42 on GOP incumbent Gardner. [Tossup]
• GA(A): Morning Consult has GOP incumbent Perdue up 45-42 on Dem Ossoff. Monmouth has Perdue up 49-43. YouGov has Perdue up 45-43. [Tossup]
• GA(B): Monmouth has GOP incumbent Loeffler at 26, GOPer Collins at 20, Dem Lieberman at 14, and Dem Warnock at 9.
• KY: Morning Consult has GOP incumbent McConnell up 53-36 on Dem McGrath. [Likely R]
• IA: Monmouth has GOP incumbent Ernst up 48-45 on Dem Greenfield. [Tossup]
• KS: PPP has GOPer Marshall up 43-42 on Dem Bollier.  [Lean R]
• MI: SSRS has Dem incumbent Peters up 54-38 on GOPer James. Morning Consult has Peters up 49-35. PPP has Peters up 47-39. [Lean D]
• MN: PPP has Dem incumbent Smith up 48-39 on GOPer Lewis. [Solid D]
• NC: Marist has Dem Cunningham up 50-41 on GOP incumbent Tillis. Morning Consult has Cunningham up 46-37. YouGov has Cunningham up 48-39. [Tossup]
• SC: Morning Consult has GOP incumbent Graham up 44-43 on Dem Harrison. [Likely R]
• TX: Morning Consult has GOP incumbent Cornyn up 44-38 on Dem Hegar. [Likely R]
• More GA(B): Dem Matt Lieberman faced calls to drop out of the race after it emerged that he had written a novel with racist tropes.
• MT: A state judge ruled that the Green Party candidates were to removed from the ballot after GOP fraud in the petitions was uncovered (Montana gives an unusually large share of votes to third parties, so there is often some gamesmanship from the GOP and Dems in trying to get them on).  This will likely be a help to Dems running for House and governor, but most critically, Senate.

STATES & LOCAL

• NC gov: Same Marist poll has Dem incumbent Cooper up 58-38 on GOPer Forest. PPP has Cooper up 53-42. [Lean D]
• Cook analysis of all the state legislature races.
• Not sure if I've linked this before, but this is a great detailed look at flippable state legislatures by Future Now Fund.
• Super punitive DA of  Orleans Parish, LA (New Orleans) declines to run again.  Any of the current candidates will be an improvement.